Canada’s Life Expectancy Rises to 81.7 Years, Experts Warn of Slower Gains

Recent data from Statistics Canada indicates an increase in life expectancy in Canada, rising from 81.3 years in 2022 to 81.7 years in 2023. This marks the first improvement in life expectancy since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, experts caution that this rebound may not signal a return to the steady increases seen in previous decades.

Doug Norris, senior vice president and chief demographer at Environics Analytics, expressed skepticism regarding future gains. In an interview with CTVNews.ca, he stated, “I think when we get the data from 2024, 2025, we’ll be back to where we were before COVID, maybe a little bit higher. But the increases we’ll see going forward, I think, are going to be a lot less than we saw 10 and 20 years ago.”

Challenges Impacting Life Expectancy

Life expectancy typically rises when there are fewer deaths overall or when deaths occur mainly among older individuals. While the pandemic significantly contributed to a decline in life expectancy, Norris highlighted another critical issue: the ongoing opioid crisis. In 2023, Canada recorded a staggering 7,162 accidental drug poisoning deaths, the highest number ever documented, surpassing previous highs during the pandemic.

Norris stated, “We’re still seeing the impact of the accidental drug deaths, so we may get an increase again in life expectancy, but my guess is it will be much slower than historically we saw.” He noted that while medical assistance in dying (MAID) has become more prevalent, accounting for approximately one in 20 deaths nationally, its current impact on overall life expectancy remains minimal compared to the opioid crisis and COVID-19.

Long-Term Health Trends and Optimism

In addition to the immediate effects of the pandemic and the opioid crisis, several long-term health trends are shaping Canada’s life expectancy. Factors such as chronic conditions linked to smoking, alcohol consumption, and physical inactivity are contributing to the national health landscape. Norris pointed out the rising obesity rates and other environmental factors that may hinder future increases in life expectancy.

He remarked, “There probably are environmental factors that are starting to have an impact … that in the long term, will probably slow the increases we see.” Norris also suggested that the benefits from past medical breakthroughs may be leveling off, indicating that future improvements could be less pronounced.

Despite these challenges, there are reasons for cautious optimism. Deaths from COVID-19 fell significantly in 2023, decreasing by 60 percent compared to the previous year. Additionally, the gender gap in life expectancy has been narrowing. Norris expects the national average to continue its gradual upward trend, although without the robust momentum Canadians have experienced in the past.

“Where we would like it to be is we’d like to see increases year over year,” he said. “But there’s no guarantee.” As Canada moves forward, the evolving health landscape will require ongoing attention to both emerging threats and historical trends to ensure continued improvements in life expectancy.