CREA Adjusts 2025-2026 Housing Market Projections Amid Uncertainty

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) has revised its forecasts for home sales and average prices for 2025 and 2026, citing economic uncertainties affecting buyer activity. According to CREA’s updated analysis, this recalibration follows an expected recovery year in 2024, driven by pent-up demand and declining interest rates.

In its initial predictions, CREA anticipated national home sales would exceed the 500,000 mark in 2025, with average prices reaching approximately $700,000. As of October 16, 2025, the association now projects that around 473,093 residential properties will be sold through Canadian Multiple Listing Service ® (MLS ® ) systems in 2025. This figure reflects a 1.1% decline from the previous year, primarily influenced by downturns in key markets such as British Columbia, Alberta, and Ontario.

In early 2025, various factors, including tariff disruptions and ongoing economic uncertainty, caused many potential buyers to retreat from the market. This hesitation has particularly impacted sales in British Columbia and Ontario, where prices have faced additional downward pressure. Despite these challenges, CREA noted a positive trend beginning in March 2025, with home sales showing consistent growth. This suggests that while buyer activity was initially dampened, it was not entirely stifled.

The updated forecast indicates that the national average home price is expected to decrease by 1.4% year-over-year, settling at $676,705 in 2025. Notably, declines in average prices are projected only for British Columbia and Ontario, where high costs have led to reduced activity. Meanwhile, other provinces are predicted to experience price hikes ranging from 4% to 8%, helping to offset these losses nationally.

Looking ahead to 2026, CREA anticipates a rebound in home sales, projecting an increase of 7.7% to approximately 509,479 units sold. If realized, this would represent the highest sales activity since 2021, though still falling short of peak levels reached during the past decade. The national average home price is expected to rise by 3.2% to about $698,622 in 2026, maintaining a trend of hovering around the $700,000 range for six consecutive years.

While these forecasts offer a glimpse into future trends, CREA emphasizes the inherent uncertainties that continue to affect the housing market. The next update on home sales activity and average prices is scheduled for January 15, 2026.

CREA serves as one of Canada’s largest industry associations, representing over 160,000 REALTORS ® who work to promote the interests of property owners, buyers, and sellers across the nation. For further information, please contact Pierre Leduc, Media Relations at CREA.

This updated analysis by CREA is critical for stakeholders in the real estate market, providing insights into anticipated shifts in buyer behavior and pricing trends amid a fluctuating economic landscape.