Brandon School Division Reports Significant Rise in Student Mobility

The Brandon School Division (BSD) has announced a noteworthy increase in student mobility for the 2024-25 academic year. The division’s net enrolment grew by a total of 324 students following September 30 of last year, with an additional 201 students joining in the subsequent four months. This marks a substantial rise compared to previous years, indicating a trend that BSD aims to monitor closely.

Tracking Mobility Trends

Superintendent Mathew Gustafson highlighted that BSD has begun a more detailed monthly tracking system for student movement. This approach has revealed valuable insights into when students are most likely to enter or leave the educational system. Gustafson noted that the cumulative net mobility for 2024-25 was 55 students higher than in 2023-24, suggesting a continuing upward trend in enrolment.

“By looking at mobility month by month, we found that our largest growth doesn’t always happen in September,” Gustafson explained. “Some of the biggest increases occur in October, at the semester change in January or February, and again in April or May.” This understanding is crucial for BSD, as the division sets its budget in March, well before many of the student movements take place.

During the current academic year, BSD recorded 1,110 instances of students transferring into a new school and 783 instances of students transferring out. While these trends align with previous years, the division is keen to uncover the reasons behind the fluctuations, particularly the spring peaks.

Factors Influencing Student Movement

Several factors are contributing to the changes in student mobility, as Gustafson noted. Immigration has played a significant role, with families relocating to Brandon from various regions, both within Manitoba and from other provinces and countries. Gustafson pointed out that housing availability is another critical factor. Families moving into new homes often initiate transfers within the city’s schools.

“Where families may be renting and then have an opportunity to move or buy, that can be a major driver,” he stated. Additionally, Gustafson suggested that families arriving from countries with differing school calendars might also contribute to the increased enrolment during spring months. “Often, families don’t want to move until their school year completes,” he added. “If their academic year ends in March, it makes sense that we see higher enrolment in April and May.”

To enhance its forecasting accuracy, BSD is incorporating housing-development data into its enrolment projections. “By analyzing the number and density of new residential units, we estimate how many students each new development could add,” Gustafson explained. This method has already influenced decisions regarding school catchment areas, such as the recent shift in the Braecrest catchment zone to balance student capacity at Kirkcaldy Heights and George Fitton School.

Financial Implications of Growth

The continued growth in student numbers is expected to have significant financial implications for BSD. As provincial funding is linked to the number of enrolled students, the division anticipates an increase in funding for the next academic year. However, Gustafson emphasized that this funding may not fully cover the additional costs associated with the rising student population. “The provincial funding won’t cover the full cost of those students,” he explained, noting that local levies and property assessments will help bridge the gap.

Gustafson underscored the importance of the division’s expanding data set, which is entering its third year. “With two years of consistent patterns and a third year underway, we can now start to make more reliable predictions,” he stated. This enhanced data analysis will allow BSD to make informed decisions regarding staffing, space, and budgeting in line with actual trends in student mobility.

The ongoing analysis and strategic planning reflect BSD’s commitment to adapting to the evolving educational landscape, ensuring that it meets the needs of its students effectively.