Brandon School Division Reports Surge in Student Mobility for 2024-25

The Brandon School Division (BSD) has experienced a notable increase in student mobility for the 2024-25 academic year. The division’s net enrolment has risen significantly compared to the previous school year, indicating ongoing demographic changes within the community.

In a recent report to the board, Superintendent Mathew Gustafson highlighted that total enrolment grew by 324 students after September 30, 2024, with an additional 201 students added in the following four months. This trend marks a cumulative net mobility increase of 55 students compared to the 2023-24 academic year, suggesting a persistent upward trajectory in enrolment figures.

Understanding Student Mobility Trends

BSD has begun to monitor student movement on a monthly basis, allowing administrators to identify patterns that could influence staffing and budget decisions. Gustafson remarked, “By looking at mobility month by month, we found that our largest growth doesn’t always happen in September.” He noted that significant enrolment increases often occur in October, at semester changes in January or February, and again in April or May.

This month-by-month analysis is particularly beneficial for BSD, as it prepares its annual budget in March, months before many transfers typically take place. During the 2024-25 school year, the division recorded 1,110 instances of students transferring into a new school while 783 instances of students transferring out occurred.

While these trends align with historical data, BSD is keen to understand the underlying reasons for peak mobility periods, especially in spring. Gustafson identified several factors contributing to these trends, including immigration patterns and housing dynamics.

Factors Influencing Enrolment Changes

The influx of families relocating to Brandon, both from within Manitoba and from other provinces or countries, remains a significant factor in student mobility. Gustafson explained, “Housing also plays a significant role, as families renting or purchasing new homes often trigger moves within the city’s schools.” When families transition from renting to buying homes, it can lead to shifts in school enrolment.

Another factor impacting spring enrolment spikes may be linked to families arriving from areas with different academic calendars. “Often, families don’t want to move until their school year completes,” Gustafson noted. For families whose academic year ends in March, it is logical to see heightened enrolment in April and May.

To improve forecasting accuracy, BSD is now incorporating housing development data into its enrolment predictions. “By analyzing the number and density of new residential units, we estimate how many students each new development could add,” Gustafson explained. This modelling recently informed adjustments to the Braecrest catchment area, redistributing projected growth from Kirkcaldy Heights to George Fitton School to better align with school capacity. Early indications are positive, with approximately 50 students already utilizing the new bus route to George Fitton.

As BSD continues to grow, financial implications are inevitable. Since provincial funding is directly linked to student enrolment numbers, Gustafson expects an increase in funding for the coming year. However, he noted that this funding will not fully cover the additional costs associated with the increased student population. “The provincial funding won’t cover the full cost of those students,” he stated, adding that local levies and property assessments will help bridge the financial gap.

Gustafson emphasized the importance of the division’s expanding data set, which is now entering its third year. “With two years of consistent patterns and a third year underway, we can now start to make more reliable predictions,” he said. This data will enhance BSD’s ability to plan for staffing, space, and budgets that accurately reflect the realities of its evolving school community.

As BSD navigates these changes, it remains committed to understanding and addressing the needs of its diverse student population. The insights gained from tracking mobility trends will be instrumental in shaping the future of education within the Brandon School Division.