Chile’s Right-Wing Candidate Leads in Polarizing Presidential Runoff

In a significant political shift, Chile’s presidential election is heading to a tense runoff as former lawmaker and ultraconservative candidate José Antonio Kast emerges as a frontrunner. He will face Jeannette Jara, a member of the Communist Party and former labor minister in the outgoing government led by Gabriel Boric, following a first-round vote on November 19, 2023. Kast, who garnered nearly 24% of the votes, is campaigning on a platform that emphasizes public safety, economic growth, and strict immigration policies.

The first round saw right-wing candidates collectively receive nearly 70% of the overall votes. This reflects growing concerns among Chileans regarding organized crime, illegal immigration, and rising unemployment in a nation often regarded as one of Latin America’s safest and most prosperous. Kast, known for his admiration of Donald Trump, has positioned himself as a candidate for those seeking a “firm hand” on national security.

In a surprising twist, Jara secured a narrow lead with approximately 27% of the votes, advocating for the expansion of Chile’s social safety net and addressing issues related to money laundering and drug trafficking. Neither candidate achieved the required 50% majority, necessitating a runoff election scheduled for December 14, 2023.

Election Dynamics and Voter Sentiment

The atmosphere at Kast’s campaign headquarters was celebratory, with supporters expressing optimism about his potential to transform Chile’s security landscape. Young voters, such as 20-year-old Ignacio Rojas, voiced their desire for a candidate who could restore safety and stimulate economic growth.

Analysts note that Kast’s rise reflects a broader regional trend where dissatisfaction with leftist governments is prompting a shift toward conservative leadership. Patricio Navia, a political analyst at New York University, explained that economic stagnation and high living costs have fueled voter frustration. He stated, “Voters are upset with governments all over the region.”

In addition to Kast, Franco Parisi, a populist businessman and economist, surprised observers by securing about 20% of the votes. Parisi’s campaign focused on law and order, including proposals to create barriers along Chile’s northern border. Meanwhile, Johannes Kaiser, a libertarian congressman, received approximately 14% of the votes.

Kast’s campaign has not received unanimous support from the right. Some voters from Kaiser and Evelyn Matthei, who garnered 12.5% of the votes, expressed hesitation about supporting Kast due to his conservative views. Nevertheless, both Matthei and Kaiser have publicly endorsed Kast, emphasizing the need for a significant change in direction for Chile.

Regional Implications of the Election Results

Chile’s political landscape mirrors a broader regional trend as several Latin American countries witness a pivot toward right-wing leadership. The recent election of radical libertarian President Javier Milei in Argentina marked a decisive break from leftist populism, further emphasizing the shift across the continent.

Other nations, including Ecuador and El Salvador, have maintained right-leaning governments, while Bolivia’s electorate has recently opted for a conservative candidate after nearly two decades of leftist rule. This trend could bolster U.S. influence in the region, as newly elected leaders seek foreign investment and stronger ties with American businesses.

As the political climate evolves, Kast’s potential victory could align with Chile’s strategic position as the world’s largest copper producer and a vital player in the global energy transition. Unlike his leftist predecessor Boric, who faced significant legislative hurdles in enacting progressive policies, Kast may find a more favorable political environment if he wins the presidency.

With a decisive majority expected for right-wing parties in the upcoming congressional elections, the dynamics of Chile’s governance could shift dramatically, influencing both domestic policies and international relations for years to come.