Family of Four Faces Nearly $1,000 Food Price Increase in 2026

Families in Canada can expect significant increases in food costs in 2026, with a family of four projected to pay nearly $1,000 more than in 2025. This forecast is part of Canada’s Food Price Report 2026, published by Dalhousie University’s Agri-Food Analytics Lab in collaboration with other Canadian universities. The report predicts an overall rise in food prices of up to six percent, with meat experiencing the steepest increases, estimated at five to seven percent.

The report indicates that the annual food cost for a typical four-person household could reach up to $17,571.79, marking an increase of $994.63 from the previous year. Lead author Sylvain Charlebois, director of the Agri-Food Analytics Lab, emphasized that if these estimates are accurate, it would mean food prices have surged by more than 30 percent since 2020.

In 2025, the report had accurately predicted a three to five percent overall increase in food prices, aligning with the latest Consumer Price Index, which reported food inflation at 3.4 percent. Charlebois noted that meat continues to dominate the discussion around food prices. The previous report forecasted a four to six percent increase for meat, but actual prices rose by 7.2 percent.

Chicken, a staple protein for many Canadians, is also expected to see price increases. Charlebois noted that the price of whole chicken has risen by 23 percent year on year, suggesting that while chicken has remained a more affordable protein, it will become less accessible.

The report highlights the importance of diversifying protein sources. Co-author Sadaf Mollaei, assistant professor and Arrell Chair in the Business of Food at the University of Guelph, points out that shifting towards plant-based proteins can be a cost-effective alternative. She stressed, however, that consumers should not feel forced to make such choices due to affordability issues.

Several additional categories are expected to contribute to rising prices in 2026. Items classified under “other” and restaurant meals are projected to increase by four to six percent, while vegetables may rise by three to five percent. The “other” category includes pantry staples and dried goods often overlooked, such as pasta and sauces. Charlebois explained that many of these items are essential for home cooking and are anticipated to become more expensive.

As restaurant prices rise, Canadians may alter their dining habits. A recent report indicated that approximately one-third of Canadians are already limiting their restaurant meals and takeout to less than $50 a month. Mollaei remarked on the shift in perspective regarding eating out, stating that it is becoming less of a leisure activity and more of a necessity.

Other categories are also set to experience increases. Bakery items, dairy, and eggs are expected to rise by two to four percent, fruits by one to three percent, and seafood by one to two percent. While these increments may seem minor, the cumulative effect, combined with rising food insecurity and record-high food bank visits, can significantly impact consumer budgets. Mollaei pointed out that even small price changes can have a devastating effect on those already struggling to afford food.

The report identifies several factors that could drive these price increases. Trade disputes with the United States, the consumer-led “Buy Canadian” movement, and changes to the Temporary Foreign Workers Program were noted as significant influences in 2025. Charlebois highlighted that the Buy Canadian movement resulted in a noticeable shift in consumer purchasing habits, particularly against American products.

Looking ahead, the report anticipates variables such as ongoing trade tensions, interprovincial trade barriers, and new front-of-package nutrition labeling requirements, which will take effect on January 1, 2026, as potential contributors to food inflation. Charlebois noted that broader issues, including climate change and geopolitical dynamics, will continue to shape the food landscape.

Despite the anticipated price increases, Charlebois expressed confidence that Canadians are better prepared to manage these changes than they were two years ago. He noted that consumers are increasingly informed about prices and budgeting for groceries.

Mollaei echoed this sentiment, emphasizing that the complexities of the food system require a comprehensive understanding of various influencing factors, not solely related to food. She underscored the need for a resilient food system capable of adapting to disruptions, both current and future.

The findings of the Canada’s Food Price Report 2026 serve as a critical reminder of the challenges facing Canadian households as they navigate rising food costs in the years ahead.