Poilievre Poised for Victory in Upcoming Byelection

In a strong indication of political momentum, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre is projected to achieve a decisive victory in the upcoming byelection for the Battle River—Crowfoot riding, scheduled for August 18, 2024. This insight comes from Philippe J. Fournier, a prominent election forecaster and founder of the forecasting website 338Canada, who stated that Poilievre’s chances of losing the election are extremely low.

Fournier shared his analysis with the National Post, emphasizing the historical voting patterns of the constituency. “When we look at the history of this riding, going back decades, the Conservative candidate gets 70 or 80 percent of the vote every time,” he noted. Current projections from 338Canada suggest that Poilievre is likely to secure between 65 and 81 percent of the popular vote.

Early Voting and Historical Context

Early voting for the byelection begins on August 16 and will continue through August 19. The previous Conservative representative, Damien Kurek, garnered an impressive 83 percent of the vote in the last federal election before stepping aside to allow Poilievre to contest this seat. Fournier believes that the forecasting model may even underestimate Poilievre’s support, stating, “If I had to bet, I would say that Poilievre will probably beat my projection.”

While Fournier anticipates that Poilievre’s performance will be strong, he does not expect it to match Kurek’s level. “The data I have access to so far says easy win for Mr. Poilievre, most likely below Mr. Kurek,” he added. The presence of independent candidates in the race introduces an element of unpredictability, with a record-breaking 214 candidates appearing on the ballot, a result of the efforts by the Longest Ballot Committee.

Impact of Independent Candidates

According to Fournier, independent candidates are projected to capture between 4 and 18 percent of the vote. He highlighted Bonnie Critchley, a local independent candidate, as a significant factor that could influence the election outcome. Critchley, a retired master corporal from the Canadian Forces and a local horse breeder, has been gaining attention for her campaign, which emphasizes community engagement.

“If Ms. Critchley really connects and gets 15 percent, the Liberals get 10, suddenly you have a 25 percent or more who aren’t voting Conservative,” Fournier remarked.

Critchley’s campaign has received a notable endorsement from Arlene Dickinson, a well-known entrepreneur and television personality. The effectiveness of her campaign may hinge on whether her message resonates with voters in Battle River—Crowfoot, an area that has shown strong support for Conservative candidates in the past.

Despite the potential for a lower-than-expected performance, Fournier believes it will not have a long-lasting impact on Poilievre. “If he gets 50 percent or 75 percent, there’s no real difference… we’ll all have forgotten about it by the time he takes his seat in September,” he stated.

Looking ahead, Poilievre will face a leadership review at the Conservative Party’s upcoming convention, scheduled for January in Calgary. As the byelection approaches, the focus will remain on the dynamics at play in Battle River—Crowfoot and how they may shape the political landscape for the Conservative Party in the near future.