Brandon School Division Reports Increased Student Mobility in 2024-25

The Brandon School Division (BSD) has announced a notable increase in student mobility for the 2024-25 academic year, with net enrolment growth surpassing figures from the previous year. This year’s data reflects an additional 324 students enrolled following September 30 of the last year, with another 201 students joining in the subsequent months.

Growing Enrolment Trends

According to Superintendent Mathew Gustafson, the division’s cumulative net mobility for 2024-25 was 55 students higher than the previous year, indicating a sustained upward trend in enrolment. Gustafson explained that examining student movement on a month-by-month basis provides valuable insights into when students are most likely to transfer in or out of the school system.

“By looking at mobility month by month, we found that our largest growth doesn’t always happen in September,” Gustafson stated. He noted significant increases often occur in October, during semester changes in January or February, and again in April or May. This data is crucial as BSD prepares its budget annually in March, prior to much of the student movement.

During the 2024-25 school year, BSD recorded 1,110 instances of students transferring into new schools, compared to 783 instances of students transferring out. While these trends align with previous years, the division is keen to understand the reasons behind peak mobility periods, particularly in the spring months.

Factors Driving Mobility

Superintendent Gustafson identified several factors influencing these trends. Immigration continues to play a significant role, with families relocating to Brandon from both within Manitoba and other provinces or countries. “Housing also plays a significant role, as families renting or purchasing new homes often trigger moves within the city’s schools,” he explained.

He further elaborated that families may delay their relocations until their academic year concludes, particularly if they are coming from countries with different school calendars. “If their academic year ends in March, it makes sense that we see higher enrolment in April and May,” Gustafson noted.

In an effort to enhance enrolment forecasting, BSD is now incorporating housing development data. “By analyzing the number and density of new residential units, we estimate how many students each new development could add,” he explained. This approach recently influenced changes to the catchment areas, redirecting projected growth from Kirkcaldy Heights to George Fitton School, effectively balancing school capacity.

Early indications suggest this modelling is accurate, with approximately 50 students already utilizing the new bus route to George Fitton.

The district’s growing enrolment figures will have financial repercussions. Funding from the provincial government is directly tied to the number of enrolled students. Gustafson anticipates an increase in funding for the upcoming year; however, he cautioned that it may not fully cover the additional costs associated with the rising student numbers. “The provincial funding won’t cover the full cost of those students,” he stated, emphasizing the need for local levies and property assessments to bridge the gap.

As the division’s data set grows, now entering its third year, Gustafson expressed optimism about the ability to make reliable predictions. “With two years of consistent patterns and a third year underway, we can now start to make more reliable predictions,” he said. This increased confidence will aid in planning for staffing, space, and budgets that accurately reflect current trends in the schools.

The Brandon School Division continues to adapt to the evolving landscape of student mobility, ensuring that its strategies align with the needs of the community it serves.