Carney Government Sees Surge in Approval Ratings as Parliament Resumes

Prime Minister Mark Carney is set to address the House of Commons next week for the first time since June, as Parliament begins its fall sitting. A recent poll conducted by Ipsos for Global News reveals that the Carney government has achieved an approval rating of 58 percent, the highest for any Canadian government in almost a decade. This figure matches the rating of Justin Trudeau‘s government after its initial year in office, which stood at 61 percent.

Despite criticisms from Opposition Leader Pierre Poilievre, who characterized the summer as a “Seinfeld summer”—a season in which the government supposedly accomplished nothing—the Ipsos poll indicates that the government’s approval rating has risen by 10 points since the summer. The survey, conducted between September 5-8, 2023, shows that the Carney administration garners the most support among younger Canadians aged 18-34 (with a 63 percent approval rating) and those over 55 (with 59 percent approving).

Challenges Ahead for Carney Government

While the Carney government enjoys a significant approval rating, challenges loom on the horizon. Ipsos identifies key vulnerabilities that the Conservative Party, Bloc Québécois, and NDP are likely to exploit, particularly regarding affordability, the cost of living, and economic conditions. According to Darrell Bricker, Global CEO of Public Affairs at Ipsos, the government must take tangible action on these issues rather than relying on communication strategies or promises. He stated, “You can’t communicate your way out of this… You’ve got to find a way to actually have a direct effect.”

The Ipsos survey also revealed that 36 percent of respondents graded the government with an “F” for its efforts in lowering the cost of living, while 31 percent assigned a failing grade for addressing Canada’s housing affordability crisis. These ratings suggest a disconnect between public perception and government performance on critical issues.

The Carney government initially gained traction due to perceptions that it could effectively manage relations with U.S. President Donald Trump and handle tariffs. However, recent cabinet meetings have indicated that this relationship is no longer the pressing concern it once was. Despite this shift, Bricker notes that there remains no immediate regret among voters who supported Carney, particularly those prioritizing trade relations with the United States.

Voter Preferences Remain Steady

Despite the emerging economic challenges, voter preferences have shown remarkable stability. Ipsos found that 43 percent of decided voters would choose the Liberal Party, slightly down from 44 percent during the spring election. The Conservative Party stands at 39 percent, down from 41 percent, while the NDP, currently leaderless, holds 7 percent, up from 6.3 percent in April.

In Quebec specifically, the Liberal Party leads with 41 percent support, followed by the Bloc Québécois at 32 percent, and the Conservatives at 23 percent. The NDP trails significantly with just 1 percent of the vote. For this survey, Ipsos gathered responses from 1,001 Canadians, including 184 individuals from Quebec.

As the Carney government prepares to return to Parliament, it faces both a favorable approval rating and pressing issues that require immediate attention. The coming weeks will likely be pivotal in determining whether the government can maintain its support amid rising concerns over affordability and economic stability.