U.S. and Israel Launch Major Strikes on Iran, Expert Warns of Escalation

The recent military strikes led by the United States and Israel against Iran have raised significant concerns regarding potential shifts in geopolitical dynamics. International security expert Sajjan Gohel, who serves as the director of the Asia-Pacific Foundation, emphasized during an interview on CTV News Channel that this operation marks a departure from traditional policies, possibly setting the stage for a more complex and unpredictable conflict.

Gohel stated, “We’ve gone into unprecedented territory.” He explained that the current military actions aim for regime change in Iran, a scenario that has not unfolded since the 1979 Islamic Revolution when the Shah of Iran was overthrown. The focus of the strikes appears to be on dismantling the existing theocratic regime and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which Gohel described as the “Praetorian Guard” for Iran’s leadership.

He further noted that these strikes represent a significant shift away from previous strategies that relied on sanctions and proxy engagements to contain Iran’s influence. Gohel commented, “This is just the beginning of a strategy that’s been implemented, and the outcome of which, and the end stage of which, we do not know.” The strikes initiated on the morning of October 7, 2023, targeted key locations, including areas near the office of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as well as various military installations across the nation. Reports from Iranian media indicated multiple locations were affected, with visible smoke rising from the capital.

The potential for escalation is heightened by the involvement of other regional players. Gohel indicated that retaliatory strikes had already impacted nations such as Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Jordan, with Jordan employing its defense systems to intercept incoming missiles. He anticipates that countries like Saudi Arabia, historically a rival of Iran, may soon be drawn into the conflict, particularly given its existing defense pact with Pakistan, which has condemned the U.S. operations.

Gohel pointed out that the relationship between Israel and Saudi Arabia complicates the situation further, as the two nations currently lack formal diplomatic ties. He noted that Saudi Arabia will be closely monitoring Iran’s actions, especially regarding critical maritime routes like the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, which are vital for global trade. The expert warned that Iran may resort to using proxy groups, including Hezbollah and the Houthis, to sow further instability in the region.

In a troubling dimension, Gohel highlighted the potential for the IRGC to leverage connections with organized crime networks in Western countries, including Canada, the U.S., and the U.K. This could lead to targeted operations against Iranian dissidents. He articulated that Iran is now in a fight for its survival, stating, “They have nothing to lose but to cause harm and inflict damage.” He anticipates that Iran will likely target U.S. military installations and naval vessels in the vicinity.

“This is an unprecedented moment that we are witnessing,” Gohel concluded, underscoring the gravity of the situation as it continues to evolve. The ramifications of these military actions remain uncertain, with significant implications for regional stability and international relations. The situation will require close monitoring as the conflict unfolds.

With contributions from the Associated Press, this article aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of the ongoing developments in the Middle East.