New Tool Reveals Impact of U.S. Tariffs on Ontario’s Communities

A new interactive tool developed by researchers at the University of Toronto highlights the potential impact of U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs on Canadian communities, particularly in Ontario. This research, unveiled by the School of Cities, aims to provide a detailed view of how specific tariffs could affect jobs, businesses, and residents in various metropolitan areas.

The tool uses data from Statistics Canada and other sources, allowing users to explore the ramifications of tariffs on specific goods across different sectors. “We thought it was really important to have a tool that was publicly available for policymakers and the general public to understand what that looks like,” said Dr. Tara Vinodrai, a professor in the Institute for Management and Innovation at the university. She co-led the study with Professor Karen Chapple, director of the School of Cities.

Vinodrai emphasized the importance of understanding the local impact of tariffs, noting that cities are where people experience the effects of economic policies daily. “The city is where people lead their everyday life. It’s where people work, it’s where people play,” she explained.

Widespread Effects Across Ontario

The research findings indicate that the potential impacts of tariffs could be more extensive than initially anticipated. The interactive map developed as part of the study illustrates where the effects of tariffs would be most pronounced. According to the tool, three out of five local areas with the highest percentage of workers likely to be affected by tariffs are located in Ontario: Windsor (16.4 percent), Guelph (15.5 percent), and Greater Sudbury (13.9 percent).

In terms of absolute numbers, Toronto ranks first, with just under 250,000 workers estimated to be impacted. Other major cities like Montreal, Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton follow closely, with Ontario cities such as Hamilton, Kitchener–Cambridge–Waterloo, and Ottawa-Gatineau also appearing in the top ten, each with around 50,000 residents likely to face direct consequences.

The tool further allows for an analysis of jobs and businesses affected across different industries. Vinodrai noted that sectors related to automotive manufacturing, steel, and aluminum are expected to experience the most visible impacts.

Insights for Policymakers and Communities

Vinodrai hopes the tool will enhance public understanding of the situation and serve as a resource for decision-makers. “There are lessons for policymakers around diversifying,” she suggested. The interactive map could also help identify regions most in need of assistance due to tariff impacts.

“Our most important audience is a policy audience,” Vinodrai said, underscoring the tool’s potential to inform interventions and support programs for affected communities. While the current research focuses on direct impacts, Vinodrai acknowledged that the team plans to investigate the indirect effects of tariffs on jobs and workers in future studies.

As Ontario prepares to confront the potential challenges posed by U.S. tariffs, this innovative tool stands as a crucial resource for understanding and addressing the economic landscape at the community level.