Scientists Warn of Threats to Earth System Models Amid Budget Cuts

The future of Earth system modeling faces significant challenges following proposed budget cuts by the U.S. government. Scientists warn that these reductions could undermine vital research that predicts climate patterns, extreme weather events, and their impacts on human activities.

The concept of Earth system models, or ESMs, has evolved since the 1960s when meteorologist Edward Lorenz introduced the “butterfly effect,” illustrating how minor changes can lead to drastically different outcomes. Today, ESMs integrate complex interactions among the atmosphere, oceans, land, and biological systems, enabling researchers to better predict future conditions.

According to David Lawrence, a senior scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), these models provide a comprehensive view by coupling various components of the Earth’s systems. “It’s coupling together usually an atmosphere model, an ocean model, a sea ice model, land model, together to get a full picture of a physical system,” Lawrence explained.

In 2023, the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), developed by the Department of Energy (DOE), revealed surprising connections, such as how the structure of Antarctic ice affects tides along the North American coast. E3SM is recognized as one of the leading ESMs globally, showcasing the power of modern computing to simulate intricate environmental dynamics.

Despite its advancements, the E3SM faces uncertainty due to proposed budget cuts under the administration of former President Donald Trump. The DOE’s recent budget request for 2025 indicates that activities related to climate research, a core function of E3SM, will be terminated. “Any E3SM activities involving climate are terminated,” the budget states, raising concerns about the model’s future viability.

Research funding has already seen significant reductions. The DOE previously allocated approximately 100 million USD between 2018 and 2022 to enhance the model. As the proposed budget cuts threaten ongoing projects, experts fear a loss of expertise and research capacity within the U.S.

Scientists are particularly concerned that diminished funding for ESMs may lead to a migration of modeling capabilities to other countries. Andrew Dessler, a professor of atmospheric sciences at Texas A&M University, warned that if the U.S. loses these critical capabilities, countries like China could catch up rapidly. “Our research universities are really the envy of the world, and our government labs are the envy of the world,” Dessler remarked.

The potential consequences of these funding cuts extend beyond academic circles. E3SM’s models help predict not only climate changes but also how these changes impact infrastructure, such as power grids during extreme weather events. This understanding is crucial for urban planning and disaster preparedness.

The current landscape for climate research funding appears precarious. The DOE’s budget request for 2026 proposes a reduction of support for Earth and environmental system modeling from around 110 million USD to 30 million USD. Meanwhile, the National Science Foundation has indicated a continued but reduced commitment to research that refines weather and Earth system models.

The situation is compounded by reports suggesting that government directives have restricted the use of key terms such as “climate change” in public communications. This has raised concerns among scientists about the implications for transparency and public understanding of climate science.

As scientists strive to create a “digital twin” of the planet—an accurate model representing Earth’s complex systems—they face an uphill battle. Achieving this goal requires not only advanced technology but also the expertise of seasoned scientists, which takes years to develop. The potential loss of experienced professionals could hinder future advancements in climate modeling.

The global implications of U.S. budget cuts to climate research are already being felt. Researchers in Europe express concerns about the impact on international collaboration and scientific leadership. “It’s quite sad because the USA has always been a leader in the field,” said environmental researcher Yi Yao, who has utilized E3SM for studies published in Nature Communications.

In light of these challenges, some scientists are exploring alternative strategies to preserve the capabilities of ESMs. Initiatives to create data archives and backup systems for climate research have emerged as a response to fears of data loss.

While the future of E3SM and similar models hangs in the balance, experts emphasize the need for continued investment in climate research. As Dessler pointed out, the loss of human capital and research capacity poses a long-term threat to understanding and addressing the complex challenges posed by climate change.

The fate of Earth system models reflects not only the current political climate but also the broader importance of scientific inquiry in safeguarding the planet’s future. As funding debates unfold, the scientific community continues to advocate for the vital role of ESMs in understanding climate dynamics and their implications for humanity.