Indian Oil Imports from Russia May Plunge After Trump’s Warning

URGENT UPDATE: Indian refiners are poised to reduce imports of Russian oil following comments from former President Donald Trump suggesting Prime Minister Narendra Modi has committed to halting purchases. This development comes as six executives from state-owned refiners report being caught off guard by Trump’s remarks made on Wednesday.

As of Thursday, nearly 60 million barrels of Russian crude were en route to India, with significant quantities expected to arrive at the port of Sikka, favored by Reliance Industries. However, the uncertainty surrounding official guidance from New Delhi has left refiners in a state of hesitation regarding their purchasing strategies.

Indian Oil Corp., the nation’s largest refiner, and Reliance Industries are currently reassessing their crude-buying practices, according to sources who requested anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter. The Indian government has traditionally prioritized energy security, but now faces mounting pressure amid scrutiny from the United States.

In recent months, Indian imports of Russian oil have drawn significant international attention, particularly after the U.S. imposed hefty tariffs linked to this trade. New Delhi has oscillated between defiance and compliance, struggling to balance domestic pressures against international expectations.

“Our energy purchases are guided entirely by safeguarding the interests of the Indian consumer,” said Ministry of External Affairs Spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal, confirming ongoing discussions with the U.S.

Despite the pressure, Indian refiners have not engaged in panic buying of alternative non-Russian crude recently, according to traders familiar with the market. Russian grades like Urals are currently priced lower than alternatives from the Middle East, Africa, and the Americas, making them an attractive option for Indian refiners.

Estimates from Kpler Ltd. indicate that Russian crude flows to India are set to average around 1.7 million barrels per day in October, reflecting a 6% increase compared to September, though slightly below last year’s levels. This highlights India’s reliance on Russian oil, particularly as the nation struggles to find affordable alternatives amidst geopolitical tensions.

While Trump did not specify a timeline for India to cease Russian oil purchases, he indicated that an immediate stop was not anticipated. The absence of clear directives leaves Indian refiners in a difficult position, grappling with both international scrutiny and domestic demand.

As the situation develops, the global oil market watches closely, with implications not only for Indian consumers but for international relations and energy security. Expect updates as this story unfolds.