Mexico Steps Up as Key Fuel Supplier to Cuba Amid U.S. Moves

UPDATE: Mexico has emerged as a crucial fuel supplier to Cuba, responding to escalating tensions as the United States prepares to tighten its grip on Venezuelan oil. This shift comes amid a hardening stance by the Trump administration towards Cuba, heightening the urgency of energy supply issues for the island nation.

As of now, U.S. control of Venezuelan oil threatens to exacerbate Cuba’s ongoing energy crisis, already marked by chronic blackouts and fuel shortages. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum acknowledged that “with the current situation in Venezuela, Mexico has become an important supplier of crude oil to Cuba.” However, she claimed that current exports remain consistent with historical figures, stating, “there is no specific shipment” that exceeds previous levels.

In 2025 alone, Mexico shipped an average of 19,200 barrels per day to Cuba, consisting of 17,200 barrels of crude oil and 2,000 barrels of refined products. This represents a mere 3.3 percent of Mexico’s total oil exports, but holds significant implications for Cuba, which relies heavily on these supplies. Recent reports indicate that shipments from Mexico have not risen despite the growing needs in Cuba, raising concerns about the future of energy access.

Reports from the Energy Institute at the University of Texas at Austin reveal that prior to U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s visit to Mexico City in September 2025, oil shipments reached as high as 22,000 barrels per day, but subsequently dropped sharply. Experts predict that Mexico will face increasing pressure from the United States concerning its oil exports to Cuba, as the U.S. government is likely to react strongly to any substantial increases.

Residents in Cuba are already feeling the impact. José Martínez, a 65-year-old resident of Old Havana, expressed his fears: “The blackouts are going to intensify with all this,” referring to the geopolitical upheaval. Street vendor Yeison Gálvez, 37, echoed these sentiments, worrying about transportation constraints: “We’ve depended on Venezuela for fuel. We’re going to be walking even more.”

Historically, Mexico has provided oil during times of crisis in Cuba, including significant humanitarian shipments after the 2021 protests and severe blackouts. In one instance, Mexico sent more than 400,000 barrels in just a few days to alleviate critical shortages. Such actions demonstrate Mexico’s pivotal role in Cuba’s energy landscape, especially under the current geopolitical climate.

Despite the pressing needs, experts like Jorge Piñón caution that it is unlikely Mexico will significantly increase oil shipments to Cuba. They emphasize that any such move would provoke a strong response from the United States, further complicating Mexico’s diplomatic relations.

As the situation continues to evolve, the implications for Cuba’s energy stability remain uncertain. The Mexican government has yet to disclose future plans regarding oil exports, leaving many to speculate about the potential for increased humanitarian aid or contractual shipments.

With the global oil market shifting, observers will be closely monitoring developments in this crucial energy relationship. The intertwined fates of Mexico, Cuba, and Venezuela create a complex scenario that could shape the future of energy access in the region.

Stay tuned for more updates as this situation unfolds.