Urgent Warning: Canada May Not Eliminate Cervical Cancer by 2040

UPDATE: Canada’s ambitious goal to eliminate cervical cancer by 2040 faces a stark reality as new data reveals that cervical cancer rates have plateaued, raising alarms among experts. The latest report, part of the 2025 Canadian Cancer Statistics, reveals a troubling trend that could hinder progress in public health efforts across the nation.

According to the report published today, cervical cancer rates, which had been steadily declining at 2.2 percent annually from 1984 to 2005, have now stagnated, with only a 0.3 percent annual decrease recorded from 2005 to 2021. This stagnation is underscored by a concerning spike in cases, with rates increasing by 3.7 percent from 2015 to 2019, marking it the fastest-growing cancer among women during that period.

Dr. Jennifer Gillis, director of surveillance for the Canadian Cancer Society, expressed her alarm, stating, “The fact that cervical cancer incidence is no longer declining is really important, because we know cervical cancer is one of the only cancers we can eliminate.” The report forecasts 1,650 new cases of cervical cancer in 2025, a significant increase from 1,320 cases in 2005.

The implications of this data are profound. With over 254,000 people expected to be diagnosed with cancer this year alone, the plateau in cervical cancer rates indicates that Canada may be losing ground in its fight against this preventable disease. Dr. Aisha Lofters, a clinician scientist at Women’s College Hospital, emphasized the importance of cervical cancer screening, noting that participation rates for Pap tests have dropped from 74 percent in 2017 to 69 percent in 2024.

Gillis attributes the stagnation to low participation in screening and vaccination programs. “Cervical cancer is almost entirely preventable through the HPV vaccination and routine screening,” she said. However, many women report barriers such as lack of awareness about the necessity of the test, time constraints, and discomfort, contributing to a significant reduction in participation.

Canada has initiated several programs aimed at combating cervical cancer, including transitioning from Pap smears to more effective HPV testing in provinces like Ontario and British Columbia. Self-testing options are also being introduced in various regions. Despite these efforts, experts warn that the current trends call for an urgent reassessment of strategies to improve screening rates and vaccination efforts.

“Things can happen very quickly; we’ve seen that with measles and the cervical cancer numbers,” Dr. Lofters noted. “The changes were coming, but they still kind of crept up on us.” She stressed the need for continued investment in public health infrastructure to maintain and enhance the health of Canadians.

As this situation develops, experts urge immediate action to reverse the trend and ensure that Canada meets its 2040 elimination goal. With cervical cancer presenting a clear relationship with HPV, the potential for preventative measures remains high, but only if participation in screening and vaccination dramatically improves.

The urgency of this report cannot be overstated—Canada’s fight against cervical cancer hangs in a delicate balance, and the time for action is now.