
NEW YORK – The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® experienced a significant decline in June, dropping 5.4 points to 93.0 from May’s 98.4, as economic concerns continue to weigh on consumers.
Immediate Impact
The latest figures reveal a broad-based decline in consumer sentiment, with both the Present Situation Index and the Expectations Index showing notable decreases. The Present Situation Index, which reflects consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions, fell by 6.4 points to 129.1. Meanwhile, the Expectations Index, indicating consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, dropped 4.6 points to 69.0, a level that often signals a potential recession.
“Consumer confidence weakened in June, erasing almost half of May’s sharp gains,” said Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board.
Key Details Emerge
The decline in consumer confidence was consistent across all age groups and nearly all income brackets, with the most significant decrease observed among Republicans. Tariffs and inflation remain top concerns among consumers, although there were slightly more mentions of easing inflation compared to the previous month. Consumers’ expectations for future income and job prospects have also dimmed.
June’s retreat in confidence was shared by all age groups and almost all income groups. It was also shared across all political affiliations, with the largest decline among Republicans.
By the Numbers
- 19.0% of consumers rated business conditions as “good,” down from 21.4% in May.
- 15.3% said business conditions were “bad,” up from 13.7%.
- 29.2% reported jobs were “plentiful,” a decrease from 31.1% in May.
- 18.1% felt jobs were “hard to get,” slightly down from 18.4%.
Expert Analysis
Guichard noted that consumers’ assessments of the present situation and their expectations for the future both contributed to the overall decline in confidence. While consumers remain wary of current business conditions, their appraisal of job availability has weakened for the sixth consecutive month, though it remains positive due to a still-solid labor market.
“Consumers were less positive about current business conditions than May. Their appraisal of current job availability weakened for the sixth consecutive month but remained in positive territory,” Guichard remarked.
What Comes Next
Consumers’ outlook on stock prices shows signs of recovery, with 45.6% expecting an increase in the next 12 months, up from 37.6% in April. However, expectations for interest rates indicate a rise, with 57% of consumers anticipating higher rates, marking the highest share since October 2023. The survey also highlighted a slight increase in the number of consumers expecting a recession over the next year.
Background Context
The Conference Board conducts the Consumer Confidence Survey® monthly, using an online sample provided by Toluna, a technology company specializing in real-time consumer insights. The cutoff date for June’s preliminary results was June 18, 2025. The survey provides valuable insights into consumer behavior and economic expectations, serving as a critical tool for economists and policymakers.
The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey®, based on an online sample, is conducted for The Conference Board by Toluna, a technology company that delivers real-time consumer insights.
As the year progresses, the evolving economic landscape will continue to influence consumer confidence levels. Policymakers and industry leaders will closely monitor these trends to gauge potential impacts on the broader economy and adjust strategies accordingly.