Kim Jong Un Declines Trump’s Offer Amid Strengthened Alliances

US President Donald Trump aimed for an informal meeting with North Korea’s leader Kim Jong Un during a recent trip to Asia, but analysts indicate Kim had little incentive to engage. Despite Trump’s statements expressing a willingness to meet and his acknowledgment of North Korea as a “sort of a nuclear power,” Pyongyang remained silent on the invitation. Instead, North Korea has continued its missile tests and strengthened ties with Russia and Belarus.

According to Seong-Hyon Lee, a visiting scholar at the Harvard University Asia Center, Kim’s decision to avoid the photo opportunity underscores a significant misjudgment by Washington. “The brutal reality is that Kim Jong Un had no incentive to participate,” Lee noted. He added that Trump’s overtures inadvertently provided Kim with a “massive, unearned concession,” enhancing the legitimacy of his nuclear ambitions.

The last encounter between Trump and Kim occurred in March 2019 at Panmunjom, located in the Demilitarized Zone between North and South Korea. This meeting followed Trump’s invitation to Kim via Twitter, but subsequent negotiations in Hanoi collapsed over disagreements regarding denuclearization and sanctions relief. Since then, North Korea has asserted itself as an “irreversible” nuclear state and established closer relations with Russia, even sending troops to support Moscow in its conflict in Ukraine.

Kim’s current position is bolstered by the support he receives from Russia, which has become a crucial ally. Soo Kim, a former CIA analyst, emphasized that “Russia’s backing is probably one of the most decisive factors strengthening and cementing North Korea’s strategic hand these days.” With this newfound leverage, Kim can afford to disregard Trump’s advances, maintaining the upper hand in international diplomacy.

While returning from a meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, Trump remarked that he had been too “busy” to meet Kim but suggested a future return to the idea. This contrasts sharply with the tensions of 2019, when negotiations fell apart and left Kim to endure a lengthy train journey back to Pyongyang without any agreements.

The lessons from that experience have made North Korea cautious about future engagements. Vladimir Tikhonov, a Korean Studies professor at the University of Oslo, stated that North Korea is likely looking for more concrete proposals from the United States, including formal diplomatic recognition and sanctions relief, without committing to denuclearization.

The shifting global alliances further diminish Kim’s reasons for pursuing approval from Washington. Recently, North Korean foreign minister Choe Son Hui visited Moscow, where she and President Vladimir Putin agreed to bolster their bilateral ties. Analysts suggest that North Korea is receiving significant financial aid, military technology, and food and energy support from Russia, which helps it circumvent stringent international sanctions.

Additionally, trade with China has surged, reaching its highest levels in nearly six years, providing North Korea with further economic relief. Last month, Kim was seen alongside Xi and Putin at a military parade in Beijing, a powerful symbol of his elevated status in global affairs.

As a result of these relationships, Kim Jong Un finds himself in a robust position, one where he sees no need to exchange his newfound influence for a fleeting photo opportunity with Trump. The North Korean leader is operating from a “position of strength,” largely due to his strategic partnerships with Russia and China, and the ongoing US-China competition, which he views as a long-term advantage.