Poll Reveals Majority of Toronto Voters Want New Mayor

A recent poll indicates that Mayor Olivia Chow is facing significant challenges as a majority of Toronto voters express a desire for new leadership ahead of the municipal election scheduled for October 2024. The survey, commissioned by ABC Toronto and conducted by Hamish Marshall of One Persuasion, demonstrates that many residents are dissatisfied with the city’s direction under Chow’s administration.

The poll, which surveyed over 800 residents between October 6-8, 2023, reveals that only 28% of respondents believe Toronto is on the right track. In stark contrast, 55% feel the city is moving in the wrong direction, while 17% are undecided. This sentiment is evident across all areas of the city, including Etobicoke, Scarborough, and the urban core, where majorities express discontent.

Chow’s support is notably waning among her own constituents. Approximately one-third of those who voted for her in the 2023 byelection now believe it is time for a new mayor. This shift is particularly concerning as 44% of respondents rate her performance negatively, suggesting that her administration has not met their expectations. Only 26% of voters feel she has done a good job and deserves re-election.

Voter Sentiment and Potential Opponents

When asked about potential alternatives for mayor, the poll tested Chow’s viability against former mayor John Tory and current city councillor Brad Bradford. In a three-way race, Tory leads with 36% support, followed closely by Chow at 33% and Bradford at 29%. Notably, Tory’s support is strongest among voters north of Eglinton Avenue, where he garners 45%. Bradford, meanwhile, finds his strongest backing in Etobicoke, at 54%, while Chow’s support peaks at 38% in the urban core.

The dynamics shift significantly in head-to-head matchups. If Chow were to face Tory directly, he is projected to receive 44% of the vote compared to her 31%. Against Bradford, Chow would receive 32% to Bradford’s 40%. This data illustrates a troubling trend for Chow, indicating that she could struggle in both individual contests against her potential opponents.

Bradford has officially launched his campaign, positioning himself as a candidate advocating for generational change and improvement of core city services. While Tory has not yet declared his candidacy, he has not ruled out the possibility and is reportedly assembling a campaign team. His previous supporters appear to be shifting towards Bradford, which could pose additional challenges for Chow.

Political Context and Implications

Chow, who is expected to run for re-election, will likely receive backing from the local New Democratic Party (NDP) and activist group Progress Toronto. In contrast, ABC Toronto, founded earlier this year, aims to support centrist candidates who align more closely with Libertarian and Conservative values at the federal and provincial levels.

The findings from this poll, which has a margin of error of 3.5%, highlight a growing disconnect between Chow’s administration and the electorate’s expectations. With significant portions of the population expressing a desire for new leadership, the upcoming election could dramatically reshape the political landscape in Toronto.

As the municipal election approaches, the pressure mounts on Chow to address the concerns of her constituents and regain their confidence. The outcome of this polling data could be a crucial indicator of voter sentiment as candidates prepare for a potentially transformative election year.